Films love predicting the future. Books have been imagining the future for a hundred years. H. G. Wells and Aldous Huxley tried to envision the real world of tomorrow. So did James Cameron. Are these highly creative minds considered futurists? If not, then what is a futurist?
The answer, like most of futurism, is complex.
Let's dive right in.
What Is Futurism?
According to the dictionary, futurism has a couple of meanings.
a) An adherence to the future;
b) The study of the future and predictions about the future
Both definitions are a little vague but that's the dictionary for you. They're also not entirely correct.
You see, futurism is more than movies and sci-fi books. It affects every major discipline, particularly in the sciences, but also in economics, politics, design, and even law.
Futurism is indeed the study of the future, but real futurists avoid making predictions. They look for trends and attempt to follow those trends through to their logical development.
Imagine a wavy line with multiple branches coming off of it. We'll use this line as a visual example of a timeline. It can be any timeline, whether that's the entirety of the human species or the lifespan of Ottawa's new LRT.
This timeline is wavy because events, decisions, nature, even the weather, can affect the timeline from day to day. Sometimes there are branches off the timeline. These are events that forced a major deviation from the normal course of history.
Take Japan.
The Future History of Japan
For 2,000 years, Japanese society was relatively unchanged. Feudal lords of the Samurai class ruled over the island chain and fought bloody wars with each other.
That's a long timeline.
Here and there a lord would seize power and become the Shogun, or the supreme warlord of all of Japan. Those would cause waves in the timeline.
Then Tokugawa seized power in 1603. The Tokugawa Shogunate would last until the modern period in the 1860s. Japan closed itself off the world but knew peace and stability (albeit oppressed under a brutal military dictatorship).
Then the first branch in the timeline appeared. Admiral Perry showed up in Tokyo Bay with a modern US fleet of warships and forced Japan to open up to the world.
From this point, we might assume that Japan's timeline was irrevocably altered.
But it wasn't.
That was a branch in the timeline. But when we look at the timeline as a whole, it continued on as it was. Japanese militarism simply evolved to meet the modern world.
Historians and futurists see the trend in this timeline. Militarism. Japanese exceptionalism. Strict societal codes. These trends continued in Japan despite opening up trade to the rest of the world.
That ultimately led to the Second World War. Which led to the atomic bombing of Japan.
Suddenly, Japan's timeline came to an end. A new branch took over. The 2,000 years of warlord rule over the nation was over. This new branch ushered in a new Japan.
Japan became a democracy. With intense US aid, the nation quickly modernized its economy and cities.
Japan became not only a modern industrialized western-style country, but it began to lead the world in development and technology.
Futurists studying this new timeline can see the trends. Since 1945, Japan has taken on a new intensity.
A Futurist might be able to say that all Japanese trends point to a future where Japan is the most technologically advanced nation in the world, surpassing America, Germany, and China in everything. ]
It's not hard to see this future. Just look at Tokyo today.
Futurism Follows Trends
So at its heart, a futurist looks at the trends of the past and present and follows them into the future.
It may sound complex, but it's not.
If you know some history and can link that history to events today, you can logically figure out what will happen tomorrow.
That said, there are a few rules futurists need to follow.
The Rules of Futurism
Some new-age movements consider themselves futurists. There's nothing new about this. The early Christian church was a futurist movement. They strongly believed that Armageddon was coming any day, and Christ would return to earth, and all the good people would be resurrected.
Some cults are futurists. The Heaven's Gate cult believed aliens were coming to take its followers off the earth. They just had to die first.
There are less extreme new-age futurist movements.
For example, many astrologers consider themselves futurists. They attempt to 'divine' the future through random arbitrary observations of natural phenomena.
None of these adherents are actual futurists. They are futurologists at best.
The fact is that whether it's a cult or an astrologer, their predictions are mere flights of fantasy. They are not grounded in reality. They have a 50/50 chance of predicting the future correctly, and only if they get lucky.
Let's leave them behind.
Instead, look at real futurists. These are professionals and deep thinkers. They work in science, government, academia, the arts, and the financial world. Their job is to determine what the future holds based on present trends.
As such, they follow certain rules. These are:
1) Never make predictions
2) Look for signals
3) Study history
4) Uncover hidden patterns
5) Understand technology
Each discipline also has its own set of rules. Science has rules, architecture has rules, and military planning has rules. But these five rules govern futurism in all the disciplines. They are the bedrock of futurism.
Futurism As A Science
Futurism is a science more than an art. While screenwriters and authors can take creative license, the good ones mix real hard science into their stories. There's no room for magic in futurism.
Therefore futurism follows a basic scientific formula.
3 Ps + 1 W
This stands for Possible Probable Preferable + Wildcard
Possible
When a futurist looks at the trends, they need to consider what is possible.
For example, Japan may become the dominant society in technology. At the same time, it's impossible that Godzilla will suddenly appear and destroy Japan.
Of course, that's a ridiculous and extreme example, but you get the idea.
Futurism is about the possible. If something is impossible, then it's not going to happen, no matter how hard we wish it would.
Probable
The second P in the scientific equation of futurism has to do with probability.
By studying trends in the timeline of any particular subject, futurists must take into account what is probable.
With Japan, Tokyo will probably continue to be the largest city in the world for a long time into the future. And although Japan's population is declining due to low birth rates, people continue to move to Tokyo for economic opportunities.
On the other hand, it is improbable that Osaka will surpass Tokyo and become the largest city in the world.
Therefore a futurist can say with confidence that Tokyo will be the largest city in the future world, and Osaka will not.
Preferable
The third P in the futurist equation is 'Preferable.' When trying to determine how present trends affect tomorrow, futurists need to look at the most preferable outcome.
This comes down to "what should happen."
It's a fact that climate change makes everything worse for us and will continue to trend in that direction. Poverty is growing. Economic inequality is widening. The world seems to be trending towards a worse outcome than we have today.
But a futurist has to look at what should happen within the realm of possibility and probability. This is how futurism can shape policy. This is how futurists can help society.
We should harness technology and policies that reduce climate change. We should address income inequality.
A cleaner, greener, and more equal future is then possible and probable. It is preferred.
Wildcard
Alas, there is always the wildcard.
This is the monkey wrench in the gears of time. Unknown events can wildly alter the outcomes.
The nuclear bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were complete wildcard events that absolutely altered the course of history. It altered Japan's future, but also the world.
The Cold War grew out of those two bombs. American and corporate dominance was the result of those bombs. The radical social shifts of the 60s and 70s, 9/11 and terrorism, Trump and Facebook, are all a result of those bombs.
Those two atomic bombs were wildcards. Nobody knew they were coming (aside from a select few in the US military establishment). Nobody could foresee how the world would change.
The bombing of Japan was a global turning point. It was a wildcard moment.
Many academic futurists reject the concept of the wildcard. They don't believe that anything can wildly alter the future.
Instead, they subscribe to a process called EIA, or Emerging Issues Analysis. They search for drivers of change.
For example, they would say of Hiroshima that the war and the fanaticism of the Japanese military made atomic bombs inevitable. They might conjecture at the time that something as devastating as a nuclear strike was going to happen because it needed to happen.
Even if they couldn't foresee the actual atomic bombs at the time, they would argue that something big like that was bound to happen.
Wildcard or EIA, both serve the same function. They attempt to uncover the random events that can alter the future.
The History of Futurism
Futurism began in 1842. Sounds weird, doesn't it? But that was the year that the Oxford English Dictionary first printed the term.
The world was going through an explosion of scientific and engineering progress. It was the Industrial Revolution, and the Age of Reason was at its height.
It makes sense that people were excited about the future. They thought it would be a Jules Vern steampunk kind of utopia, with flying bicycles and bowler hats with mechanical umbrellas.
Russian Futurism
Then an art movement sprung up around futurism in the 1920s. It was mostly spurred by Russian and Italian artists. Futurism as an artistic style is closely related to modernism.
Russian futurism was particularly distinct. The traumatic effects of the Great War and the Russian Revolution on the Russian people were exemplified in this movement.
Artists from St Petersburg and Moscow formed collectives. They painted scenes that included traditional Russian folklore with mechanical technology.
The paintings were highly abstract. Many of them were disturbing. Russian futurism had lots of solids and straight lines. Russian futurism is both chaotic and highly controlled.
Just like Russia.
 |
| 'The Knife Grinder' by Kalamir Malevich, courtesy of Wikicommons |
Russian futurism was also heavily influenced by early Soviet society. The Communists saw themselves as the future. Their party and their art and their thinking were considered futuristic. Capitalism was anachronistic in their minds.
You see a lot of Russian futurism in Soviet art and architecture.
Modern Futurism
Futurism evolved into an actual scientific discipline by the 1940s. It evolved in American universities, and the experts there advised the government and military during World War Two.
Operation Overlord, the Allied liberation of western Europe beginning with the D-Day landings in Normandy, was a result of futurism.
General Eisenhower, the Supreme Commander of the Allied Expeditionary Force (and future US President), relied on teams of people making scientific estimates as to how the operation would play out. He didn't plan a single battle. He planned an entire end to the war and the defeat of the Nazis.
He had teams of meteorologists predicting weather patterns a year in advance. There were teams of logistics experts from both the military and industry, planning how much was needed and where. Fuel, bullets, food, medicine, bombs, tents, nuts and bolts, gloves, bayonets, pens, tires...everything a massive army needs to defeat a powerful enemy was all pre-planned.
You get the point.
Eisenhower's trust in the experts led to the ultimate defeat of the Nazis.
Futurism as an actual discipline grew out of that war. Soon corporations and governments were using futurists to make strategic decisions.
As China began to open up to western trade in the 1970s, American corporations looked to futurists to help them make decisions about investment in China. How would China grow? Were these overtures trustworthy?
The experts in the field of economic futurism believed that China was a solid investment. They were absolutely right. They were also right when they advised to not invest in Iran or North Korea.
Futurism Today
Today, futurism is a multi-disciplinary field of study.
It includes academics at leading universities. There are entire programs devoted to the study of futurism. Investment advisors study futurism. Technology firms depend on futurists. Governments consult futurists.
Don't forget about futurism in the entertainment industry. Futuristic films, games, books, and television series are always popular. They have been since the 1840s!
How Futurism Works
To understand the future, experts use a variety of tools. We already discussed the five key concepts of futurism, as well as the three Ps and one W (or EIA).
But there's more to it.
When a futurist wants to know what the future of a particular event holds, they first look at something called 'weak signals.'
Weak Signals
A weak signal is a growing trend that indicates future change. Take the American Civil Rights movement in the early 1960s.
It began as a series of isolated demonstrations. Then there was the desegregation of the University of Alabama. Dr. Martin Luther King became known across the nation.
A futurist looking at events at the time would have immediately seen this as a weak signal that big change was in the air. They could have told you that the mood in America would one day change to one of anti-racism. BLM and Colin Kapernick and all the race issues America faces today would have been no surprise to a futurist in 1963.
Those beginnings are weak signals.
Trend Analysis
A futurist will attempt to analyze the trends once they've figured out the weak signals. There are different types of trends to look at.
Megatrends
Megatrends are things that occur across generations. Often weak signals are a result of the buildup of trending issues over years and years. The civil rights movement is a perfect example of a megatrend, that leaders should have seen coming but were caught completely by surprise when it exploded.
Technological trends
Technology plays one of the most influential roles in human history. From harnessing the power of fire to creating plows to the invention of smartphones and rockets, technology has shaped humanity.
That's why futurists look at how technology is trending. One reason the civil rights movement didn't happen before the late 1950s and early 1960s is that the technology for mass media wasn't there yet.
But television appeared in the 1950s.
Suddenly people were watching events live. They could see police brutality and injustice happening. People across the nation were disgusted.
A futurist then would have seen the effect television was having on the escalation of the civil rights movement. They would have correctly forecast the future of race relations in America.
Branching trends
No event happens on its own. And each event creates ripples, or branches, that become their own events. These are called branching trends.
Futurists look at the branching trends in any timeline because they all come together to form a view of the future.
We discussed the civil rights movement in America. A futurist would have looked at race relations leading up to the 1960s. They would have looked at changing public attitudes. They would have looked at the technology involved. They would have looked at political and economic trends.
Each of those is its own thing, but each is also a branch from the trend the futurist is studying.
On the flip side, a futurist studying where television technology was heading would have had to also consider the civil rights movement as a branch of their main trend.
In simpler terms, everything is interconnected. A futurist needs to study it all.
Potential Trends
Futurists love to determine potential trends. They look for what will probably come about as a result of current and past trends.
Remember the three Ps?
How You Can Be A Futurist
Many futurists spend years in academia. They study economics and technology and political sciences.
But there's good news.
You don't need to do all that to be a futurist. So long as you can discipline yourself to understand the basic concepts of futurism, you too can make simple future forecasts.
Take your own life, for example.
You can make a short-term forecast as to what you'll be doing this time tomorrow.
What is possible, probable, and preferable?
If you were at work on Monday and you work every weekday, then you can accurately forecast that you'll be at work on Tuesday. Even if you hate your job, it's still preferable that you're there on Tuesday as opposed to in the hospital from a freak car accident.
Then again, we can't predict those wildcard events.
You can go beyond that. You can look at your home and the technology that's available to you. If you have a few smart speakers in your home today, you can see how technology is evolving at a rapid pace.
Knowing that particular technological trend, you can accurately forecast that in 20 years, you'll have a robot in your home.
Maybe it will be a robot that makes your bed or mows the lawn. But it will be a robot nevertheless. Technology is trending in that direction. It's unrelenting.
Futurism Is Awesome
Now that you know about futurism, you can dive into futurists' work. There are books and movies you can enjoy. You can look up articles online. Try and make your own forecasts.
What will the future of Toronto, Ontario hold? What about the future of your children?
Go ahead. Use what you've learned today and prepare yourself for the world of tomorrow!
Don't forget to sign up for Tomorrow's Canada and get exclusive full-length articles delivered right to your inbox. It's like a digital magazine subscription, for free!
